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"Frustrated bachelors" will destabilize China?

Posted on Aug 25th, 2007 by 火狐 Li : eccentric eremite 火狐 Li
Concerns over a "greying society" is just one of the many issues that developed nations will have to meet in the coming years, but for the world's most prosperous economy this shift in demographics has taken an interesting twist as recent headlines such as "Wifeless future for Chinese men" and "China to act on gender imbalance" reveal. Communism in China has failed to stamp out an entrenched Confucian mentality that places a social premium on male heirs. If its manifestation in female infanticide and the abortion of female foetuses continues unchecked, in fifteen years China will have 30 million more men than women-- accounting for the largest gender imbalance of any country in history.

Although the social implications of this massive demographic phenomena are only beginning to show in things like the abduction and trafficking of marriagiable women in rural areas, an even frightening future can be gleaned from works of historical literature where similar phenomena led to banditry and ultimately rebellion against the government.

反了把!(fanleba) Let's rebel!

This heartful incitation of rebellion was spoken by the bandit Li Kui from the popular early vernacular Chinese novel Shuihuzhuan 水浒传, Outlaws of Liangshan Marsh. The novels follows the rise and fall of a historical band of rebels that rally against corrupt local officials of the 11th century Northern Song court. The rebels who gather at the marsh of Liangshan are composed of men who have been wronged by officialdom; with no spouses, no heirs, and no ability to fulfil their filial task of providing heirs for their family-- these "frustrated bachelors" turn to the brotherhood of bandits for emotional solace from a society in which they would otherwise be marginalized. 

The comparison between contemporary China and this literary portrayal of Song China is not entirely without warrant, as the censored Survey of Chinese Peasants/Zhonguo Nongmin Diaocha (2003) reveals a sharp increase in rural unrest against corrupt and inept local governments. Now imagine 30 million men with no wives, no children, only parents to whom they are unable to fulfill their primary filial obligation of producing a family heir. Marginalized by their society-- these men will have nothing to lose, and everything to gain by militating against the system.

Swept underneath the celebrations of Beijing 2008 is a demographic time bomb just waiting to explode.


Addendum:
Here is an alternative scenario of 'cooption' posited by Poston and Morrison of the International Herald Tribune in their 2005 article "China Bachelor Bomb":

"Past societies with large numbers of unattached men have on occasion turned to a more authoritarian political system, perceiving threats of violence. Such societies have also sought to harness their surplus of men by recruiting excess males into military occupations, pursuing expansionist policies aimed at developing unexplored territories or colonizing neighboring ones.

The tensions associated with so many bachelors in China's big cities might tempt its future leaders to mobilize this excess manpower and go pick a fight, or invade another country. China is already co-opting poor unmarried young men into the People's Liberation Army and the paramilitary People's Armed Police."

Access_public Access: Public 1 Comment Print views (162)  
Tagged with: China, literature, politics
Ben : Alchemist
8 days later
Ben said

…Pretty terrifying. China in so many ways has become an incredibly progressive country and the thought of 30 million unmarried men some how destroying that is awful. And please no more chinese expansion,  I don't want to see another world war.  Could another possibility be a mass immigration of sorts? It's much harder to rebel these days and nobody wants to wipe our humanity as we know it, so maybe all of those men will choose to immigrate elsewhere… which of course will cause it's own problems.  Or maybe the number of celibant monks will skyrocket? I try to be optimistic, but I honestly can't see any good coming from this problem.

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